Tanzania's Pre-Election Crackdown: A Familiar Playbook

As Tanzania heads toward elections on October 29, 2025, the country is witnessing a disturbing escalation of political repression that follows a well-worn pattern used by authoritarian regimes across Africa to maintain their grip on power.

The Current Crisis

President Samia Suluhu Hassan's government has launched a sweeping crackdown on opposition voices. On April 9, 2025, Tundu Lissu, chairman of Tanzania's main opposition party CHADEMA, was arrested following a political rally in Mbinga. The charges against him are severe and strategic: treason, which carries the death penalty, and publishing false information. His alleged crime? Calling for electoral reforms and urging Tanzanians to boycott what he deemed an unfair election.

Just three days later, on April 12, Tanzania's electoral body delivered the knockout blow: CHADEMA was disqualified from participating in the elections entirely. The reason given was that party officials refused to sign the 2025 Election Code of Ethics, but the opposition maintains they wouldn't sign until meaningful electoral reforms were implemented.

The repression hasn't stopped at party leaders. Amnesty International reports that authorities have intensified their campaign against opposition supporters, journalists, civil society organizations, and human rights defenders. On April 24, police arrested dozens of Lissu's supporters outside court. Many reported being beaten and subjected to treatment that may amount to torture before being abandoned in remote areas far from their homes.

With both CHADEMA and the Alliance for Change and Transparency barred from the ballot, the ruling CCM party faces virtually no opposition. In a telling sign of the election's legitimacy concerns, international observer missions have been significantly restricted for the first time in recent elections.

The African Dictator's Playbook

What's unfolding in Tanzania is far from unique. It represents a calculated strategy that has been deployed repeatedly across the continent by leaders determined to cling to power at any cost. The playbook includes:

1. Arrest Opposition Leaders on Serious Charges Treason, sedition, terrorism, or national security violations are common accusations. These charges serve multiple purposes: they carry severe penalties that intimidate others, they justify lengthy pre-trial detention during crucial campaign periods, and they paint opposition figures as threats to the nation rather than legitimate political alternatives.

2. Disqualify Opposition Parties Whether through technical violations, new regulations, or refusal to meet arbitrarily imposed conditions, blocking parties from competing eliminates the need to manipulate vote counts. It's a cleaner form of election rigging that can be dressed up in legal language.

3. Expand Repression Beyond Leadership By targeting supporters, journalists, and civil society, regimes create a climate of fear that discourages political participation. When attending a rally or speaking out could lead to arrest, torture, or worse, many citizens simply withdraw from political life entirely.

4. Restrict International Observation Limiting or carefully controlling international election monitors reduces the likelihood that fraud and irregularities will be documented and publicized to the world.

5. Control the Narrative Laws against "false information" or "fake news" are wielded to criminalize criticism of the government, making it dangerous to challenge official accounts or report on abuses.

This pattern has played out in countries like Uganda, where opposition leader Bobi Wine has faced repeated arrests and harassment; Zimbabwe, where the government has systematically crushed dissent under both Mugabe and Mnangagwa; Cameroon, where Paul Biya has maintained power for over four decades through similar tactics; and numerous other nations across the continent.

Why This Matters

The erosion of democratic space in Tanzania should concern us all. President Hassan initially raised hopes when she took office in 2021, reversing some of her predecessor's most authoritarian policies. Her current actions represent a sharp reversal and a warning that democratic gains in Africa remain fragile and reversible.

The European Parliament passed a resolution in May condemning Lissu's arrest as "politically motivated," but international pressure has so far failed to change the government's course. As the October 29 election approaches with the outcome essentially predetermined, Tanzania joins the growing list of African nations where elections have become theater rather than genuine democratic contests.

The tragedy is not just what this means for Tanzania, but what it signals about the broader state of democracy on the continent. When leaders can follow this playbook with minimal consequences, it encourages others to do the same. Breaking this cycle requires not just international condemnation, but concrete consequences for those who dismantle democracy while claiming to uphold it.

The people of Tanzania deserve better. They deserve the right to choose their leaders freely, to organize politically without fear, and to hold their government accountable. Until those rights are restored, the October 29 election will be little more than a coronation dressed up as democracy.