The Succession Trap: Why Paul Biya Can't Let Go at 92

At 92 years old, Paul Biya remains Cameroon's president after 43 years in power. As he files for an eighth presidential term in the October 2025 election, one has to ask: what keeps a nonagenarian clinging to power when he clearly has little left to offer his country?

The answer lies not in his effectiveness as a leader, but in a trap of his own making – the complete absence of succession planning that now makes stepping down more dangerous than staying in power.

The Ghost President Phenomenon

Biya has earned the telling nickname "roaming president" due to his frequent and prolonged absences from Cameroon. By 2018, he had spent the equivalent of four and a half years away on "brief private visits" to Europe. In some years, he spent a third of his time outside the country, reportedly staying at luxury Swiss hotels that cost $40,000 per day for him and his entourage.

Recent patterns are even more concerning. Biya hasn't appeared in public since September 8, 2024, missing crucial international events including the UN General Assembly and multiple diplomatic summits. When questions arose about his health and whereabouts, his government's response was telling: they banned media from discussing the president's health, calling it a "security issue."

This creates what democracy activist Kathleen Ndongmo describes as "a governance vacuum, characterized by decision-making paralysis and increased bureaucratic inefficiency." The reality is stark: "No one really knows who is leading the country."

The Price of Personalizing Power

Over 43 years, Biya has systematically concentrated power around himself rather than building strong institutions. This approach has created what experts call "an opaque cesspool where even the key players are unable to articulate the 'big picture' manoeuvres that they're ensnared in."

The results speak for themselves:

• A secessionist war in English-speaking regions has raged since 2017, killing at least 30,000 people and displacing 700,000
• Boko Haram continues operations in the north
• High unemployment persists alongside rising food and energy costs
• The country remains overly dependent on volatile oil revenues

During the 2016 Anglophone protests that escalated into the current conflict, Biya was notably absent as security forces opened fire on demonstrators. His physical absence during national crises has become a pattern that undermines effective governance.

The Succession Dilemma

Here's where Biya's power consolidation becomes his prison. After four decades of rule, he has failed to groom any clear successor. While there's speculation about his son Franck Biya, the younger Biya maintains a low profile and reveals nothing about political ambitions.

This absence of succession planning has created what observers describe as a "civil war" within the ruling regime, with various factions positioning themselves for a post-Biya era. The "scheming is relentless, with camps changing by the day," according to political analysts.

The Fear Factor

At 92, Biya faces a terrifying reality: stepping down without a clear succession plan could be more dangerous than clinging to power. After accumulating vast wealth and power over decades, he likely fears:

• Prosecution or persecution of himself and his family
• Complete loss of accumulated resources and influence
• Potential chaos that could threaten his personal security
• The unraveling of networks that have protected his interests

This creates a vicious cycle. The very concentration of power that enabled his long rule now makes it too risky to leave, even when he's clearly incapable of effective governance.

A Cautionary Tale

Biya's situation illustrates a fundamental flaw in personalized authoritarian rule: it becomes self-perpetuating not because it works, but because dismantling it becomes too dangerous for those who created it.

While Cameroon faces mounting crises requiring decisive leadership, its aging president remains trapped in a system of his own design – too afraid to leave, too old to lead effectively, and too invested in personal survival to prioritize national interests.

The tragedy is that after 43 years in power, Biya's greatest legacy may be demonstrating how the concentration of power ultimately serves no one – not the leader, not the country, and certainly not the millions of Cameroonians who deserve better leadership.

As October 2025 approaches, Cameroonians face the prospect of electing a 92-year-old president who spends more time in Swiss hotels than in his own country. The question isn't whether Biya can win another term, but whether Cameroon can survive another seven years of governance by proxy from a leader who seems more committed to preserving his power than serving his people.